Dollar Debt in FX Swaps and Forwards: Huge, Missing and Growing Global Development Policy Center

For instance, the Reserve Bank of Australia swaps US dollars for yen (Debelle (2017)). We estimate that such operations by reserve managers sum to at least $300 billion. For their part, several large European banking systems also draw dollars from the FX swap market to fund their international dollar positions (top centre panel). Pre-GFC, German, Dutch, UK and Swiss banks, in particular, had funded their growing dollar books via interbank loans (blue lines) and FX swaps (shaded area). The meltdown in dollar-denominated structured products during the crisis caused funding markets to seize up and banks to scramble for dollars. Markets calmed only after coordinated central bank swap lines to supply dollars to non-US banks became unlimited in October 2008.

  1. In a foreign currency swap, each party to the agreement pays interest on the the other’s loan principal amounts throughout the length of the agreement.
  2. It is useful for risk-free lending, as the swapped amounts are used as collateral for repayment.
  3. ‘non-banks’ such as pension funds, dollar obligations from FX swaps are now double their on-balance sheet dollar debt, it estimated.
  4. The company reportedly said last month it may avoid a default on its yuan-denominated bonds after being deemed to have defaulted on its dollar-denominated debt.
  5. Foreign exchange swaps first entered the spotlight in 1981 by way of an agreement between US technology giant IBM and the World Bank.
  6. Out of sight may not quite be out of mind, but a lack of transparency does complicate things.

Company A has effectively managed to replace a 10% loan with a 5% loan. Similarly, Company B no longer has to borrow funds from American institutions at 9%, but realizes the 4% borrowing cost incurred by its swap counterparty. Under this scenario, Company B actually day trading forex managed to reduce its cost of debt by more than half. Instead of borrowing from international banks, both companies borrow domestically and lend to one another at the lower rate. The diagram below depicts the general characteristics of the currency swap.

Why use currency swaps?

7 For instance, it is well known that banks “window-dress” their balance sheets around reporting dates (BIS 2018, Behn et al. 02018). Indeed, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has issued guidance to address this problem (BCBS 2019b, 2018). Not least because of the regulatory treatment, the adjustment takes place largely via repos. 6 This relates to counterparty risk, in the form of the market value of the instrument (replacement cost) and potential future exposures, which are included in both cases. Schrimpf, A and V Sushko (2019a), “Sizing up global foreign exchange markets”, BIS Quarterly Review, December, pp. 21–38.

Assuming that the net FX position is zero, as typically encouraged by bank supervisors, we estimate the net use of swaps as the net positions in a given currency. Moreover, as mentioned before, the resulting net positions are likely to underestimate the gross debt positions, especially for dealer banks. This off-balance sheet dollar debt poses particular policy challenges because standard debt statistics miss it.

“This is people taking in deposits essentially in unregulated banks,” Shin said, adding it was largely about the unraveling of large leverage and maturity mismatches, just like during the financial crash over a decade ago. “This is people taking in deposits essentially in unregulated banks,” Shin said, adding it was largely about the unravelling of large leverage and maturity mismatches, just like during the financial crash over a decade ago. Foreign exchange swaps first entered the spotlight in 1981 by way of an agreement between US technology giant IBM and the World Bank. 11 Institutional investors’ hedging practice can be defended for equities, which vary in price and have no maturity (D’Arcy et al (2009)). Melvin and Prins (2015) describe equity investors’ common practice of adjusting their hedges on the last day of the month at the widely used 4 pm London “fix”.

Accounting treatment, data sources and gaps

Now assume that the agent decided to avoid the FX risk by keeping the cash in domestic currency and financing the foreign security in the foreign repo market (case 3). That is, the agent finances the security at purchase by immediately selling it while committing to buy it forward at an agreed price. (Here we abstract from the haircut so that the security is altogether self-financing.) Current accounting principles require that this be reported on a gross basis, so that the balance sheet doubles in size. Yet the position is functionally equivalent to that of an FX swap or forward. There is no FX risk, and the agent needs to finance the future obligation (debt) by coming up with the corresponding foreign currency to settle the forward leg (cases 1 and 2) or to repurchase the foreign currency-denominated asset (case 3).

Therefore, in order to take out a loan in Brazil, Company A might be subject to a high interest rate of 10%. Likewise, Company B will not be able to attain a loan with a favorable interest rate in the U.S. market. The $80 trillion-plus “hidden” debt estimate exceeds the stocks of dollar Treasury bills, repo and commercial paper combined, the BIS said, while the churn of deals was almost https://bigbostrade.com/ $5 trillion per day in April, two thirds of daily global FX turnover. Having repeatedly urged central banks to act forcefully to dampen inflation, it struck a more measured tone and picked over crypto market troubles and September’s UK bond market turmoil. That transaction will deliver in two business days instead of in three months’ time when the euros are actually needed.

Currency Swaps: Definition, How and Why They’re Done

The purpose could be to hedge exposure to exchange rate risk, to speculate on the direction of a currency, or to reduce the cost of borrowing in a foreign currency. Therefore, while foreign exchange swaps are riskless because the swapped amount acts as collateral for repayment, cross currency swaps are slightly riskier. There is default risk in the event the counterparty does not meet the interest payments or lump sum payment at maturity, meaning the party cannot pay their loan. In a foreign currency swap, each party to the agreement pays interest on the the other’s loan principal amounts throughout the length of the agreement. When the swap is over, if principal amounts were exchanged, they are exchanged once more at the agreed upon rate (which would avoid transaction risk) or the spot rate. Rather than borrowing real at 10%, Company A will have to satisfy the 5% interest rate payments incurred by Company B under its agreement with the Brazilian banks.

Similarly, if firms and governments use $2.4 trillion of currency swaps to hedge $4.8 trillion of international bonds, then they hedge half or less. This makes it very difficult to measure the debt and funding involved. The balance sheets show only the final outcome of a series of swap and forward transactions. For instance, if a bank swaps its home currency for dollars, its dollar assets end up exceeding its dollar liabilities. Moreover, for highly active dealer banks, the balance sheet shows only the net result of a possibly huge number of deals for dealer banks very active in the market. The parties involved in currency swaps are usually financial institutions, trading on their own or on behalf of a nonfinancial corporation.

Both parties can pay a fixed or floating rate, or one party may pay a floating rate while the other pays a fixed rate. Currency swaps were originally done to get around exchange controls, governmental limitations on the purchase and/or sale of currencies. Although nations with weak and/or developing economies generally use foreign exchange controls to limit speculation against their currencies, most developed economies have eliminated controls nowadays. 8 Total liabilities were $92 trillion as reported by internationally active banks from 26 (of 31) jurisdictions that report the BIS consolidated banking statistics.

Most maturing dollar forwards are probably repaid by a new swap of the currency received for the needed dollars. This new swap rolls the forward over, borrowing dollars to repay dollars. FX swaps were a key part of non-US banks’ total US dollar funding, amounting to an estimated $0.6 trillion, roughly 6% of the total in March 2017 (Graph 4). The rest, about $9.4 trillion, mostly took the form of deposits from US and non-US non-banks (red and blue areas), and dollar debt securities (yellow area). The forward creates an obligation to come up with foreign currency (a liability), matched by the right to receive the domestic currency (an asset), both equal to the current value of the foreign currency asset. A currency swap is often referred to as a cross-currency swap, and for all practical purposes, the two are basically the same.

Foreign Exchange Swap vs. Cross Currency Swap

That said, BIS statistics on FX turnover show that FX swaps are the modal instrument (see below). A foreign exchange swap or FX swap consists of a two-legged transaction that forex traders and other market participants use to change the value date of a forex position to another date that is usually further in the future. Every day, trillions of dollars are borrowed and lent in various currencies. Many deals take place in the cash market, through loans and securities. But foreign exchange (FX) derivatives, mainly FX swaps, currency swaps and the closely related forwards, also create debt-like obligations. For the US dollar alone, contracts worth tens of trillions of dollars stand open and trillions change hands daily.

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Currency swaps and FX forwards now account for a majority of the daily transactions in global currency markets, according to the Bank for International Settlements. 6 Non-banks in the United States had $866 billion in foreign currency debt in 2021 (US Treasury et al (2022)). About 5% of the $3.4 trillion in US imports were foreign currency-invoiced (Boz (2020)). Compared with $26 trillion in dollar debt, any borrowing of dollars in swaps/forwards to hedge these payables may be considered as a rounding error. They offer a company access to a loan in a foreign currency that can be less expensive than when obtained through a local bank.

They are also frequently used for speculative trading, typically by combining two offsetting positions with different original maturities. A FX swap, or Forex swap, is a foreign exchange derivative traded between two parties, usually financial institutions. Together, they lend and borrow an equal quantity of money in two different currencies over a specified time period. The fixed-floating interest swap, owing to its ubiquity, provides a solid foundation for understanding how a swap transaction functions, often referred to as a plain-vanilla swap.

The first leg, the near leg, involves the two parties swapping one currency for another at an agreed spot rate, with the second leg, or far leg, agreeing to return the borrowed funds at a specified FX forward rate. 18 In the BIS locational banking statistics, the United States does not report resident banks’ local positions, which prevents measuring US banks’ global dollar asset and liability positions. The estimate in the right-hand panel of Graph 7 for “Offices inside the US” is inferred from these banks’ net non-dollar positions, and assumes that non-dollar local positions are small. 17 BIS data provide only a partial picture of the dollar books of banks headquartered in China, Korea, Russia and many other countries.